The Forum Poll of randomly chosen Canadian voters strongly suggests that if an election were held today, almost half (46%) would support the Conservatives, while a third (30%) would support the Liberals.
One-fifth (18%) would support the NDP. Few say they would support the Green Party (4%), loc Quebecois (2%), or another party (1%).
Respondents most likely to say they support the Conservatives include those aged 45-54 (50%), 55-64 (48%) or 65+ (48%); males (52%); earning $60,000-$80,000 (54%); the least educated (52%); and living in Alberta (65%).
Respondents most likely to say they support the Liberals include those aged 45-54 (35%) or 65+ (34%); with a college / university (32%) or post-graduate degree (35%); and living in the Atlantic provinces (44%).
Respondents most likely to say they support the NDP include those aged 34 and younger (31%); females (21%); the least wealthy (25%) or earning $20,000-$40,000 (24%); and living in BC (28%).
Based on these results, the Forum Poll projects the Conservatives would secure a majority government with 234 seats.
The Liberals would serve as official opposition with 72 seats, and the NDP would secure 30 seats. The BQ and the Green party would secure 1 seat each.
But then again, a lot can happen between now and election day 2018. The Conservatives would under leader Andrew Scheer would have to really up his game and bolster his image if he has to seriously maintain momentum in the months leading into the elections. The Conservatives are currently riding high by default. Several missteps by the Liberals have given the Conservatives an unexpected gift. The next elections is theirs to lose.
PM Justin Trudeau sees approval from a third (35%) and disapproval from more than half (56%). One in 10 say they do not know (9%). His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is -21.
Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer sees approval from a third (31%) and disapproval from a third (34%). A third say they do not know (35%). His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is -3.
Federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh sees approval from one-quarter (27%) and disapproval from a third (35%). Four in 10 (38%) say they do not know.