Global protectionist measures, oil prices to drive rupee movement

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Mumbai, June 30 (IANS) Rise in global protectionist measures and high crude oil prices are expected to influence the Indian rupee’s movement against the US dollar in the coming week, experts said on Saturday.

“Going forward, unless oil prices come off substantially, we expect the rupee to follow a path of depreciation against most of the developed world currencies, especially against the US dollar,” Anindya Banerjee, Deputy Vice President for Currency and Interest Rates with Kotak Securities, told IANS.

“Over the next couple of months, USD/ INR may build a base between 67 and 69 on spot, before heading towards 71/ 72 before the FY19 draws to a close. Over the next week, a range of 67.80 to 68.80 can play out.”

According to Angel Commodities Broking’s Chief Analyst for Commodities and Currencies Prathamesh Mallya: “We see the Indian rupee headed towards the 69.2-mark against the US dollar. The pressure on current account deficit, rising crude oil prices and uncertain political scenario are the main reasons for the rupee’s depreciation.”

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Lately, high crude oil prices and geopolitical developments have weakened the Indian rupee which had depreciated to its all-time low during the week ended June 29 at 69 per US dollar-mark.

It closed at 68.47, weaker by 63 paise from its previous week’s close of 67.84 per greenback.

“Over the week the rupee fell 0.92 per cent… As the global equities market seem to have stabilised for the time being, the rupee may not breach the low of 69.09 in a hurry. However, it may remain under pressure later based on evolving global developments,” said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities



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