New Delhi, June 2 (IANS) The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday released the second long-range monsoon forecast, and predicted an overall above-normal monsoon rainfall between June to September this year.
The forecast comes as confirmation for overall good rainfall this year after two years of drought and severe drought.
“Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 106 percent of the long period average (LPA),” IMD said.
IMD Director General Laxman Singh Rathore said that the northwest region of the country will receive 108 percent rainfall of LPA which is above normal, and central India and the southern peninsula region will receive 113 percent, which is excess.
If the rainfall is between 96 to 104 percent of LPA, it is considered “normal”. Between 104-110 percent it is “above normal” and beyond 110 percent it is considered “excess.”
With 107 percent of LPA, the IMD had forecast “above normal” rainfall in the country for July, and “normal” rainfall in August, with an error perception of nine percent.
With expectation of 94 percent of LPA, the northeastern regions will receive “below normal” rainfall.
“No one has predicted deficient rainfall this year. We can hope for good rains this year,” an IMD official said.
For the past two years, over 2,55,000 villages across 255 districts and 10 states are suffering from drought that has affected over 33 crore people.
This year, however, pattern changes were evident with drop in ‘El Nino’, a climatic phenomenon which is the warm phase of the cycle of warm and cold temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that also impacts the monsoon.
A high El Nino has a negative effect in terms of the weather, agriculture and economics.