No cooling in sight for Canada’s hottest real estate markets

Residential deals post strongest growth in five years in the second quarter of 2016

House price surveyCanada’s residential real estate market continued to show strong appreciation in the second quarter of 2016, posting the highest national year-over-year gain seen in five years, according to the Royal LePage House Price Survey1 and Market Survey Forecast released today.  Amid continued world economic uncertainty, the historically low interest rate environment that has fueled Canada’sreal estate market growth in recent years – most notably in Greater Vancouver and the Greater Toronto Area(GTA) – is expected to continue longer than anticipated.  This extended period of low-cost borrowing will in turn further delay the cyclical cooling of Canada’s hottest real estate markets, originally forecasted for the second half of 2016.

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite, compiled from proprietary property data in 53 of the nation’s largest real estate markets, shows that the price2 of a home in Canada increased 9.2 per cent year-over-year to $520,223 in the second quarter of 2016.  During the same period, the price of a two-storey home rose 10.7 per cent year-over-year to $619,671, the price of a bungalow increased 7.9 per cent to $437,121, and the price of a condominium increased 4.2 per cent to $348,189.  Looking ahead to the remainder of 2016,Royal LePage forecasts that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 12.4 per cent when compared to year end 2015.

“Our forecasting models, which pointed to a slowing housing market as the year progressed, included a modest increase in the cost of borrowing,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage. “Economic and social disruptions have rocked the world once again, introducing new risks and making it very likely that the Bank of Canada will leave interest rates as-is for now. Few industries are as rate sensitive as real estate. We don’t see even a mild correction for either the Toronto or pistol-hot Vancouver markets in 2016.”

“Our call for 12.4 per cent national price appreciation in the final quarter of this calendar year as compared to the final quarter of last year, is a landmark in Canada.  I believe it is the highest value put forward by any serious forecasting agency since the turn of the century,” added Soper.

On June 23, 2016, Britons voted to leave the European Union, surprising financial markets worldwide.  The British currency plummeted and the value of equities around the world swung wildly. Adding to economic uncertainty is an uncharted road ahead for decoupling the U.K. from the E.U., a process which some have predicted could take two years. This added dimension of uncertainty will encourage central bankers in Canadaand abroad to keep rates lower for longer.

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