Q4 results, macro data to set tone for equity markets (Market Outlook)

Mumbai, May 15 (IANS) Fourth quarter results, along with a key domestic macro-economic data and global crude oil prices, are expected to set the tone for the Indian equity markets during the upcoming week.

“The market will remain mixed, awaiting to digest the full details and impact of the Mauritius-related changes, especially on the foreign flows,” Devendra Nevgi, chief executive of ZyFin Advisors, told IANS.

Investors were spooked last week, as an amended tax treaty between India and Mauritius raised fears of a massive outflow of foreign capital from the equity markets.

The amendments to the Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement (DTAA) with Mauritius are being closely studied by investors, as the island nation is a major source of foreign investments into the Indian equity markets.

Besides, investors are expected to closely track the final batch of fourth quarter (Q4) results.

Entities like Punjab National Bank, Lupin, JSW Steel, Bharat Forge, Voltas, Syndicate Bank, United Bank of India, Corporation Bank, JK Tyre and Industries are expected to announce their Q4 results in the coming week.

“Going forward, investors will closely track the next batch of Q4 results of India Inc.,” said Vaibhav Agarwal, vice president and research head at Angel Broking.

“Trends in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and crude oil price movement will dictate market trend in the near term.”

According to Anand James, chief market strategist at Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes scheduled for release on May 18 are likely to guide the key indices next week.

The US FOMC minutes assume significance as they can give vital cues on the future course of the US interest rates.

A hike in interest rates is expected to lead FPIs away from emerging markets such as India.

Apart from the FOMC minutes, key domestic macro-economic data — Wholesale Price Index (WPI) — will be keenly followed by the investors, especially on the back of annual retail inflation showing an upward movement.

Investors were disappointed last week after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a rise in April. The annual retail inflation for last month rose to 5.39 percent from 4.83 percent in March.

The rise in the CPI has reduced the chances of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) further easing its key lending rates during the monetary policy review scheduled in June.

“Indian markets will also look towards the WPI, eight core industries’ growth and GDP figures to add with macro figures released last week,” James said.

In addition, investors will optimistically await India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) next monsoon forecast scheduled for Sunday (May 15).

“Comments on the onset of the monsoon will have a binding effect on the market as it is widely anticipated to be good,” James added.

Sector-wise, Pankaj Sharma, head of equities for Equirus Securities, said that banking stocks, especially of the state-run lenders, will be in focus after the Bank of Baroda (BoB) results, which were released on Friday.

The state-run lender reported its second consecutive quarter of losses.

“An important development post market hours on Friday was BoB results. So, it would be interesting to see how bank stocks (especially PSUs) react on Monday morning,” Sharma said.

The equity markets closed the previous week on a firm note, as positive domestic cues, including parliamentary approval for key economic legislation, along with healthy inflows of foreign funds and value buying buoyed key indices.

During the week that ended on May 13, the wider 51-scrip Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) rose by 81.45 points or 1.05 percent to 7,814.90 points.

Similarly, the barometer 30-scrip sensitive index (Sensex) of the BSE surged by 261.07 points or 1.03 percent to 25,489.57 points.

(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at rohit.v@ians.in)

–IANS

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