‘Reforms and results will influence investor mood’ (Market Outlook)

Mumbai, July 19 (IANS) After a boost in sentiments led to a gain of over 800 points of nearly 2.9 percent in a key equity market index during the trading week ended July 17, all eyes will now be on the first quarter results and further economic reforms, analysts said.

Of particular interest will the upcoming monsoon session of parliament where the passage of the relevant amendment bill to introduce a pan-India goods and services tax regime can boost the sentiments even further, the analysts added.

Mood can also be lifted by finance ministry providing more clarity in the cabinet decision that combines all sources of capital from overseas, such as direct investment, or by foreign funds – into a composite head for ascertaining foreign equity cap.

“Again, our markets have shown reluctance to move lower as disappointing Index of Industrial Production (IIP) numbers released on the previous weekend were completely shrugged off in Monday’s trade,” Angel Broking said in its review.

“The near term major trigger for the market is the June 2015 quarter corporate earnings. The focus will be on guidance from the company managements on outlook for the remaining part of the year and for the next year,” said another Brokerage.

It listed upcoming corporate earnings for the June 2015 quarter, developments in parliament, progress of monsoon, global markets, foreign and domestic funds’ positions, rupee movements and oil prices to dictate the trend on the bourses in the near term.

“The near term major trigger for the market is the June 2015 quarter corporate earnings. The focus will be on guidance from company managements on the outlook for the remaining part of the year and the next year,” the brokerage added.

Analysts also felt that the poor showing in the industrial production data, which showed a slowing down in the growth to 2.7 percent for May, against 4.1 percent in April, to make the central bank to sit up and look at ways to push growth.

“The markets are hopeful of a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its upcoming monetary policy review in August,” Anand James, co-head, technical research desk, Geojit BNP Paribas, told IANS.

As regards the cabinet decision on dealing with sectoral caps, Vaibhav Agarwal, vice president and research head, Angel Broking, said: “The market is now awaiting further clarification on the composite cap decision. The decision had already led to a rally in banking stocks.”

The move removes the distinction between foreign portfolio investors, foreign direct investment and investments by non-resident Indians in computing the caps that are imposed on foreign equity in some sectors.

Gaurav Jain, director with Hem Securities, said: “Markets closed the week on a strong note due to various factors like plummeting oil prices, European Union bailing out Greece,and the Greek parliament also passing the austerity measures, as required.”

He said the next major trigger will be the monsoon session of parliament starting from July 21.

“There are high expectations on the passage of GST (goods and services tax) and land bills. The two bills are currently under preview of the parliamentary select committees,” Jain said, as analysts said this will be one of the most far-reaching reforms in recent years.

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