The Bank of Canada (BoC) today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of 0.25%, with the Bank Rate at 0.50% and the deposit rate at 0.25%, despite expectations of an increase.
In Canada, GDP growth in the second half of 2021 now looks to have been even stronger than expected, BoC said in a statement. The economy entered 2022 with considerable momentum, and a broad set of measures are now indicating that economic slack is absorbed. With strong employment growth, the labour market has tightened significantly and elevated housing market activity continues to put upward pressure on house prices, it noted.
The Omicron variant is weighing on activity in the first quarter. While its economic impact will depend on how quickly this wave passes, it is expected to be less severe than previous waves. Economic growth is then expected to bounce back and remain robust over the projection horizon, led by consumer spending on services, and supported by strength in exports and business investment. After GDP growth of 4.5% in 2021, the Bank expects Canada’s economy to grow by 4% in 2022 and about 3.5% in 2023.
BoC stated that persistent supply constraints are feeding through to a broader range of goods prices and, combined with higher food and energy prices, are expected to keep CPI inflation close to 5% in the first half of 2022. As supply shortages diminish, inflation is expected to decline reasonably quickly to about 3% by the end of this year and then gradually ease towards the target over the projection period. Near-term inflation expectations have moved up, but longer-run expectations remain anchored on the 2% target.
The global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is strong but uneven, the statement on the BoC website said. The US economy is growing robustly while growth in some other regions appears more moderate, especially in China due to current weakness in its property sector. Strong global demand for goods combined with supply bottlenecks that hinder production and transportation are pushing up inflation in most regions. As well, oil prices have rebounded to well above pre-pandemic levels following a decline at the onset of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. Financial conditions remain broadly accommodative but have tightened with growing expectations that monetary policy will normalize sooner than was anticipated, and with rising geopolitical tensions.
Overall, the Bank projects global GDP growth to moderate from 6.75% in 2021 to about 3.5% in 2022 and 2023.