Biden leads Trump in head-to-head in ‘poll 2024 rematch’ with 6 points ahead

US President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump are head to head in a hypothetical 2024 presidential rerun of 2020 with the former however gaining a six point lead among registered voters and 43 per cent favouring him against 40 per cent for Trump.

A YouGov poll conducted for Yahoo News has found that Biden enjoys a six-point lead among registered voters when it comes to another head-to-head contest with Trump.

The survey found that Biden leads Trump in a potential 2024 match-up with 43 per cent to the former president’s 40 per cent among US adults but enjoyed 48 per cent support among registered voters, compared to 42 per cent who opted for Trump.

The poll was conducted from September 2 to 6 among 1,643 US adults. The number of registered voters polled was 1,247, Newsweek reported quoting the new poll survey.

However, an earlier Yahoo News/YouGov poll conducted from July 28 to August 1 had found Biden beating Trump with 45 per cent to 42 per cent among registered voters.

In potentially good news for the president’s party, the share of Democrats in the September poll who said they would definitely vote in the 2022 mid-term elections was greater than the share of Republicans who said the same.

Among registered voters, 45 per cent said they “definitely will vote” this year and of those, 48 per cent of Democrats said they will definitely vote in 2022 compared to 45 per cent of Republicans. Americans also showed less disapproval of candidates endorsed by Biden than those endorsed by Trump.

A combined 45 per cent of registered voters said they would vote against a Trump-endorsed candidate, with 8 per cent they “probably” would and 37 per cent saying they “definitely” would.

By contrast, 38 per cent of registered voters said they would vote against a candidate endorsed by the president, with 8 per cent saying they “probably” would and 30 per cent responding that they “definitely” would.

Biden’s approval rating has been on an upward trajectory over the past month and stood at 42.5 per cent as of Wednesday, while disapproval of the job he’s doing was at 53.2 per cent, according to poll tracker FiveThirtyEight.

Neither Biden nor Trump have formally declared a 2024 White House run but both have indicated that they will run again. Trump remains the favorite for the GOP nomination. The only defeated president to subsequently return to the White House was Democrat Grover Cleveland in 1892.

The latest Yahoo News/YouGov poll is likely to be viewed as more good news for Democrats as the party’s chances in the midterm elections appear to have improved in recent weeks.

Though polls earlier this year suggested the president’s party would suffer major losses, more recent figures have suggested that Democrats could perform better than initially expected, Newsweek said.

Democrats are slightly favored to retain control of the Senate, according to the most recent analysis by FiveThirtyEight. The GOP was favored to win the Senate in the same analysis as recently as July 25.

Republicans have remained favored to win the House of Representatives but with two months until midterms, there is still the possibility that Democrats could pull off an upset victory and keep both chambers of Congress.

That outcome appears unlikely based on the most recent polling but Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has indicated she is “absolutely” prepared to lead another Democratic majority.

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