BJP leads Congress by thin margin in Manipur

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Manipur is a close contest and the BJP and the Congress are locked in a close battle. They are projected to poll 38 per cent and 34 per cent votes, respectively, as per the third ABP News-CVoter Battle for the States Tracker.

The BJP has led the Congress consistently, albeit by a thin margin, as per the Tracker.

The current projections are based on CVoter daily tracking poll conducted between November 13 and December 9, among 18+ adults, including likely voters.

As for the methodology and survey details, the survey reached out to a total of approximately 92,000+ persons across five states (UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa). It was conducted through CATI (telephonic survey). The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5 per cent and may not necessarily have factored in all the criteria.

The trend observed so far seems to be crystallising and the BJP has gained a slight edge over the Congress from the previous round of the Tracker. It is currently expected to win a simple majority of 31 seats, while Congress is close on the heels with 25 seats. The Naga ethnic party NPF is expected to mop up the remaining 4 seats.

The crystallisation of electoral trend has a lot to do with polarisation along ethnic lines witnessed in the state. The renewed Naga assertion and reaction to it from Manipuri tribes is the defining feature of this election.

In case the BJP loses its slender edge, or there is a sudden surge from Congress, we may observe yet another hung Assembly with the role of kingmaker resting with the NPF. The probability of that happening is lesser than what it was a month ago.

Manipur poll is important for the BJP to show its continued dominance in Northeast India, especially with worsening internal security situation casting a shadow over its track record.

A pacified and progressive Northeast was an important pillar of BJP’s national messaging predicated on security and national assertion.

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