BJP to retain power in UP: CNX and Ground Zero Research


The ruling Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) is likely to retain power in Uttar Pradesh, according to the exit poll predictions by two agencies — CNX and Ground Zero Research — telecast by India TV.

CNX has projected 240-250 seats for the BJP alliance in the 403-member UP Assembly with a vote share of 42.5 per cent. The Samajwadi Party alliance is likely to win 140 to 150 seats with a vote share of 33.35 per cent.

CNX has projected 6-12 seats for the Bahujan Samajwadi Party, 2-4 seats for the Congress and 0-2 seats for others with 13.7 per cent, 6 per cent and 4.45 per cent vote share, respectively.

In party-wise projections, the agency has predicted 237 seats for BJP, 127 seats for SP, 9 seats for BSP, 12 for RLD, 5 for Apna Dal, 3 for Nishad Party, 6 for SBSP, 3 for Congress and 1 for others.

The Ground Zero Research has predicted 200 seats (plus/minus 20) for BJP coalition in UP. According to the projections, the SP coalition is likely to win 188 seats (plus/minus 20), BSP 7 (plus/minus 5), Congress 5 (plus/minus 3) and others 3 (plus/minus 1).

The Ground Zero Research exit poll has given 40.33 per cent vote share to the BJP-led coalition, 37.5 per centage for SP coalition, 13.71 per cent for BSP and 5.45 per cent for Congress.

According to Ground Zero Research, in the 117-member Punjab Assembly, Congress is projected to win 54 seats (plus/minus 5) seats, Aam Aadmi Party 32 (plus/minus 5), Akali Dal-BSP 25 (plus/minus 5), the BJP coalition 4 (plus/minus 2), while others may get 2 seats (plus/minus 1).

The agency has projected 34.7 per cent vote share for Congress, 26.72 per cent for Akali Dal-BSP, 24.88 per cent for AAP, 5.51 per cent for BJP, 4.77 per cent for Samyukta Samaj Morcha and 3.42 per cent for others.

In Uttarakhand, the two exit polls made different predictions. CNX predictions showed BJP retaining power by getting 35-43 seats in the 70-member Assembly, while Ground Zero Research projected Congress is returning to power with 37-41 seats.

The CNX has projected 35-43 seats for BJP and its allies, 24-32 seats for Congress and 2-4 seats for others in Uttarakhand. As per the agency, AAP will draw a blank in Uttarakhand.

BJP will get 44 per cent of votes, followed by Congress at 38 per cent, while others may get 6 per cent vote share.

However, Ground Zero Research predicted 37-41 seats for the Congress in Uttarakhand, 25-29 seats for the BJP coalition, none for AAP and 2-4 seats for others.

The vote share predictions gave Congress 44 per cent, followed by BJP at 42 per cent, AAP at 3 per cent and others at 11 per cent.

Both the agencies made different projections for Goa. In the 40-member state Assembly, CNX predicted 16-22 seats for BJP, 11-17 for Congress-Goa Forward Party, 1-2 for MGP-Trinamool, 0-2 seats for AAP and 1-3 seats for others.

BJP will get 32 per cent of the votes, followed by Congress-GFP at 29 per cent, MGP-Trinamool at 12 per cent, AAP at 14 per cent and others at 13 per cent, CNX predicted.

The Ground Zero Research gave 20-25 seats to Congress-GFP, 10-14 seats to BJP, 3-5 seats to Trinamool-MGP, 0-1 seat to AAP and 1-3 seats to others.

In terms of vote share, BJP may get 36 per cent, Congress-GFP 37 per cent, Trinamool-MGP 13 per cent, AAP 8 per cent while others will get 6 per cent of the votes.

The Ground Zero Research predictions for Manipur show BJP retaining power by winning 26-31 seats in the 60-member state Assembly, followed by Congress with 12-17 seats, National People’s Party with 6-10 seats, Naga People’s Front with 2-6 seats, and others with 3-6 seats.

The agency has predicted 38 per cent vote share for the BJP, 28 per cent for Congress, 9 per cent for NPF, 11 per cent for NPP and 14 per cent for others.



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