BJP’s to fare well in Central, North Gujarat; AAP may open account in South

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s (AAP) is expected to perform well in three regions — Central, South and North Gujarat, while new entrant Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) may open its account in South Gujarat by winning 1 to 3 seats.

This was revealed by an IANS analysis of ABP-CVoter Exit Poll with a sample size of 30,000 spread across 182 Assembly seats in Gujarat, where the second and final phase of Assembly elections concluded on Monday. The results will be declared on December 8, along with that of Himachal Pradesh where polling was held on November 12.

As per the findings, BJP will have an advantage of 2.7 per cent vote swing as compared to 2017 Assembly elections in North Gujarat, which may translate into 23 seats, 9 more than the 14 seats it bagged in the region in 2017.

However, the Congress seems to be losing ground and is projected to win 8 seats in North Gujarat, down from the 17 seats it had won in 2017.

Meanwhile, the Aam Aadmi Party is projected to get 8.2 per cent vote share in the region, with the probability of win 0 to 1 seat.

In Central Gujarat, BJP is projected to get 4.4 per cent more vote share as compared to 2017. Its seat share is projected to rise to 47 from 37 it had won in the region in 2017.

The IANS analysis has projected 45 to 49 seats for the BJP in the region.

The Congress is projected to to win 11 to 15 seats, down from the 22 seats it won in the region in 2017, with its vote share dropping by 9.8 per cent.

As per the IANS analysis, AAP is likely to win 0 to 1 seat in the region with a vote share of 10.7 per cent.

In South Gujarat, the BJP may lose around 6.2 per cent of its vote share, from 54.1 per cent in 2017 to 47.9 this time. However this doesn’t seem to affect its seat share in the region where it is projected to win 24 to 28 seats. The party had won 25 seats in South Gujarat in 2017.

The Congress’ vote share is likely to shrink by 13.5 per cent in South Gujarat, where it is projected to win 6 seats, down from the 8 seats it had won in 2017.

New entrant AAP is likely to make some gains in the region with a vote share of 27.1 per cent, which may translate into 1 to 3 seats.

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