BSESENSEX lifetime high achieved, market trend unclear

Markets were on an uptrend last week and the long awaited and overdue lifetime high on BSESENSEX was finally achieved. BSESENSEX gained 374.71 points or 0.72 per cent to close at 52,474.76 points while NIFTY gained 129.10 points or 0.82 per cent to close at 15,799.35 points. The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 0.93 per cent, 1.10 per cent and 1.30 per cent, respectively. BSEMIDCAP gained 1.85 per cent while BSESMALLCAP fared much better gaining 3.52 per cent. The action is certainly in the midcap and Smallcap space and is borne out by the number of stocks hitting 52 weeks high on a daily basis.

The India Rupee lost 7 paisa and was down 0.10 per cent to close at Rs 73.07 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones began the week with losses for the first three days and managed to recover partially, gaining on the remaining two days but closed with losses of 276.79 points or 0.80 per cent to close at 34,479.60 points. Dow Jones is looking tired after a spectacular rally and one should not get surprised if one sees the same correcting in the coming days ahead.

BSESENSEX finally managed to hit a lifetime high and did so on Friday touching 52,641.53 points. This crossed the previous high made on February 16 of 52,516.76 points. Incidentally NIFTY had made a lifetime high on May 28 and it took a fortnight for the BSESENSEX to achieve the same, something which has not happened in a very long time.

Trading in shares of DHFL has been suspended with effect from Monday June 14 on account of the resolution plan of the NCLT which has approved and ascribed no value to the shares of DHFL. While the step of suspension is appreciated, something of this nature should have been acted upon much earlier, as many proposals in NCLT have resolution plans where the listed shares have zero value. Once things become clear, such shares should be suspended from trading on the bourses and small investors hard earned money should be preserved.

Monsoon has advanced into Mumbai and Maharashtra and the onset was led by a sharp downpour this time. Coinciding with the monsoon arrival, one is also seeing a deluge of primary market issues with four companies tapping the markets in the week beginning June 14. There would be two issues opening on Monday and closing on Wednesday the 16th of June while the remaining two would open on Wednesday the June 16 and close on June 18. Difficult to understand why such a bunching of issues has happened other than the fact that there was a hiatus in primary issuances for the last 10 weeks or so during April-May to mid June.

Shyam Metalics and Energy Limited is tapping the capital markets with its primary issue and offer for sale. The issue consists of a fresh issue of Rs 657 crs and an offer for sale of Rs 252 crs in a price band of Rs 303-306. The issue opens on Monday the 14th of June and closes on Wednesday the 16th of June. The company is a steel producer and has capacities to make pellets, sponge iron, billets, TMT Bars and ferro alloys. The total capacity is 5.71 million tons per annum with a saleable steel capacity of 3 mtpa. The same is being expanded over the next three to three and a half years to double at 11.6 mtpa and a saleable steel capacity of 6 mtpa. In this capacity the company would be adding ductile pipes and aluminium foil as well.

The company enjoys healthy margins at the EBITDA and PAT levels as compared to its peers. The EBITDA margins for the year ended March 2020 were at 14.5 per cent while they were at 6.5 per cent at the PAT level. In the first nine months ended December 2020, the same EBITDA has improved to 18.2 per cent and PAT to 11.5 per cent. The total income of the company which was at Rs 4,400 crs for the year ended March 2020 have improved to Rs 4,000 crs in the nine months ended December 2020.

The EPS for the year ended March 2020 is Rs 14.57. The same has increased significantly to Rs 19.53 for the nine months ended December 20. The price earnings multiple based on March 20 numbers is at Rs 20.80-21 times. The same PE multiple, based on nine months annualised numbers for the year ended March 2021 would be 11.63-11.75.

The share is attractively priced and offers appreciation for flippers-, medium- and long-term players as well.

The remaining three issues which would be covered during the course of the week are from Sona BLW Precision Forgings Limited which has an issue size of Rs 5,550 crs. The next issue is from Dodla Dairy Limited which has an issue size of Rs 520 crs. The fourth and final issue is from Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences Limited of Rs 2,144 crs.

On the Covid-19 front the world saw 17,64,22,387 patients, 38,10,952 deaths and 16,03,96,300 patients recovering. In India we saw 2,94,39,989 patients, 3,70,407 deaths and 2,80,43,446 patients recovering. Compared to the previous week, the world saw 26,95,291 new patients, 74,543 deaths and 37,90,303 patients recovering. In India we saw 6,30,650 new patients, 23,623 deaths and 10,58,665 patients recovering. The number of deaths in India seems much higher than normal because many of the states have corrected their number of deaths for earlier periods. About 25 cr vaccinations have been done in the country so far and hopefully the pace of vaccination would continue to pick up going forward.

Coming to the markets in the week ahead, the immediate objective of a lifetime high on the BSESENSEX has been achieved. In the past, one has experienced euphoria once such a feat is achieved. The same is missing this time around. Whether it will happen in the week ahead or will give a miss this time around is unclear. The strategy for investors would be to continue to buy on sharp dips and sell on rallies. Secondly ensure that the quality of stocks one invests in has fundamentals and are not those which consist of just momentum. Markets have not had a correction for a long time and whenever they begin could be long and deep in terms of time and value. Prepare for the same and be nimble footed in the marketplace.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)