Covid second wave’s economic impact remains minimal so far: Crisil


The economic impact of Covid-19’s second wave has remained minimal so far with only localised restrictions re-imposed, said Crisil Research.

“Few countries have escaped a second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic and it is India’s turn now, with daily cases crossing the previous peak of September 2020. And this wave is spreading faster than the first, though with a lower fatality ratio,” Crisil Research said in a note.

“Initially concentrated in Maharashtra, new cases are slowly dispersing to other states, which have seen some dip in mobility towards end-March. So far, though, economic impact remains minimal, with localised restrictions. Maharashtra, the worst impacted state, has introduced somewhat stringent restrictions that will temper mobility and contact-based services.”

According to the note, at the all-India level, mobility to retail and recreation spaces remained relatively unaffected ever since the surge in cases began in mid-February.

However, mobility in more-affected states, particularly Maharashtra, is beginning to weaken. The fresh round of restrictions in Maharashtra will accentuate this trend.

In the past week from March 29 to April 4, the note cited that daily cases shot-up from 68,000 to over 1 lakh – a whopping 52 per cent increase.

Besides, cases continue to be concentrated in Maharashtra, which accounted for 55 per cent of the new cases in March 29 to April 4 week.

Even though Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Punjab and Madhya Pradesh account for a lower share, these states have seen the highest growth rate in new cases in that week, after Maharashtra.

“Vaccination has been progressing at a slow speed… But it is expected to pick up pace in April with inoculation opening up for people aged 45 years and above.”