Global anxieties along with rising imports and persistently high crude oil prices will weaken the Indian rupee in the coming week.
Experts opined that US FOMC meet will instil tapering fears, at the same time, imports are expected to rise on weaning impact of Covid 2.0.
Any timelines for tapering measures in the US can potentially drive FPIs (Foreign Portfolio Investors) away from emerging markets such as India.
Significantly, the recent sizeable inflow of FPI funds has been credited to have lifted the domestic markets to record high levels.
“Rupee is expected to weaken on the back of rising crude oil prices to over $75 per barrel and increasing bond yields in India and nervousness building in the US will impact the rupee,” said Sajal Gupta, Head, Forex and Rates at Edelweiss Securities.
“Besides, rising domestic vaccination speed will accelerate imports, however, robust equity flows would counter the impact to some extent.”
Last week, rupee closed at 73.48 to a USD before oscillating between 73.30 to 73.60.
“US Fed is going to announce outcome of its FOMC meeting this week, which will sway currencies around the globe,” said Devarsh Vakil, Deputy Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities.
“Spot USDINR is expected to consolidate in the range of 73.25 to 73.65 ahead of next week’s US FOMC meeting and swirl according to outcome of FOMC meeting.”
Gaurang Somaiya, Forex and Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said: “Investors will be awaiting for announcement of the inflation and growth of the US economy, which means any hawkish statement could support the dollar at lower levels.
“Apart from the Fed policy meeting, the Bank of England will also release its policy statement and that could provide trigger to the GBPUSD pair that has been getting support at lower levels. *For the week, the USDINR (Spot) is expected to trade with a negative bias and quote in the range of 73.05 and 74.20.”
(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at [email protected])