Gold prices have historically inched higher during the times of Akshaya Tritiya, but this time amidst the rising anticipation of the Fed’s aggressive policy stance, the yellow metal could see some pressure on the price front, said Motilal Oswal.
As the country approaches the season of prosperity, it is very important to see how has the gold prices have moved till now and what does it look like from here on.
There are several factors which have contributed to gold’s movement in past few years, the Covid-19 pandemic being one of the major one. Although, there are three major factors to keep an eye on for gauging direction in gold — geo-political tensions, inflationary concerns and the central bank’s policies.
As the pandemic started to recede, market participants were hit by sudden updates regarding Russia invading Ukraine, which escalated quickly supporting the metal prices.
There is a climate of uncertainty currently in the market which is keeping the market participants on edge. Multiple peace talks events between the two countries have not yielded any positive outcomes as yet.
Market participants have shifted their focus to the Fed policy meeting and their hawkish stance; although updates regarding the geo-political tension and fear of rising Covid cases in China will remain important to keep an eye on.
“We have seen earlier as well that market participants tend to discount the future expectations especially from the fed quite early which we can see in the prices as well. Similarly, market participants have been discounting a 50bps rate hike in May meet, hence even with the updates regarding the Russia-Ukraine tensions, gold bulls are not finding enough strength,” it said in a report.
Prices could form a broad range until and unless overall uncertainties are not settled, hence some recovery could be seen in the prices although these rallies on the higher may not sustain.
A cautious approach is advised until market participants get a sense of, how the interest rate hike cycle and geo-political uncertainties will impact the market and the overall economic numbers.
Spot gold after touching almost the record highs is witnessing selling pressure on higher range, holding strong around $1900 per ounce.
Although keeping in mind Fed’s aggressive stance and its impact on inflation, it could see some weakness for the next few quarters.
Looking ahead, Gold on COMEX could trade in range of $1,800 to $2,050 for a 12 months’ perspective.
On the domestic front, prices could trade in a broad range with critical support at Rs 50, 000 followed by Rs 48,000 and Rs 46,500 per 10 gm, while rallies on upside towards Rs 55,000 would be opportunities to exit longs positions.