India’s Nov retail inflation sequentially inches up to 4.91% (Roundup)

Higher food prices, as well as rising commodity costs, lifted India’s November retail inflation on a sequential basis, official data showed on Monday.

As per the data, CPI inflation jumped to three-months high of 4.9 per cent which was led by higher core inflation.

Data furnished by the National Statistical Office showed that Consumer Price Index (CPI) inched up to 4.91 per cent last month from 4.48 per cent in October 2021.

However, on YoY basis, the rise in last month’s retail inflation was lower than the 6.93 per cent rise recorded for November 2020.

Despite the rise, retail inflation remained well within the range of the Reserve Bank of India’s set target of 2-6 per cent.

As per the NSO data, the rate of rise in the Consumer Food Price Index increased to 1.87 per cent last month from 0.85 per cent in October.

The CFPI readings measure the changes in retail prices of food products.

In terms of CPI YoY inflation rate, pulses and products’ prices jumped by 3.18 per cent in November 2021. Besides, meat and fish prices rose by 5.55 per cent, however, eggs became cheaper by 1.31 per cent, nevertheless, the overall price of food and beverages category was up 2.60 per cent and oils and fats prices rose 29.67 per cent.

On the other hand, vegetable prices declined by 13.62 per cent.

Furthermore, as per the official data, the inflation rate for fuel and light was at 13.35 per cent.

In addition, sub-group of clothing and footwear showed a price acceleration of 7.94 per cent.

ICRA’s Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said: “With input price pressures forcing producers to raise prices in many sectors, the November 2021 CPI inflation accelerated slightly faster than we had expected, shrugging off the favourable base effect and the cut in fuel taxes.

“A moderation in the CPI inflation for fuel and light, pan, tobacco and intoxicants, and miscellaneous items was outpaced by the rise in the inflation for food and beverages, housing, and clothing and footwear.”

Emkay Global Financial Services Lead Economist Madhavi Arora said: “Going ahead, we remain watchful of various inflation push and pull such as excise cut-led fall in fuel price hike, telecom tariff hike, volatility in vegetables prices, correction in global commodity prices and early signs of easing supply chains globally.

“Besides, the base effect will start getting unfavourable in coming months, and the headline may even fiddle with 6 per cent plus print. We also remain watchful of the pass-through of impending cost push pressures in core goods inflation and cost push via imported energy inflation, while re-opening-led ensuing demand revival in select contact-sensitive household services could pressure core services inflation ahead.”

India Ratings & Research Chief Economist Devendra Kumar Pant said: “Excise relief on petrol and diesel and cut in VAT by most state governments have not provided much relief to retail inflation. Inflation of both ‘transport and communications’ and afuel and light’ declined in November 2021, however, remained in double digit.

“India Ratings has been suggesting that the inflation of commodities such as health, fuel and light, and transport and communications has turned structural.”




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