IPO fund outflow, commodity prices to keep rupee subdued (IANS Rupee Forecast)

The expected outflow of IPO monies to foreign venture capitalists will impact rupee’s position via-a-vis USD in the coming week.

Besides, high imported commodity prices is expected to subdue the Indian rupee against the US dollar.

“Expect rupee to depreciate in the coming week due to Zomato outflows and other IPO money going back,” said Sajal Gupta, Head, Forex and Rates at Edelweiss Securities.

“Crude can again head towards 75 dollar per barrel mark and concerns over the Delta variant can keep markets nervous.”

The rupee closed at Rs 74.41 per USD on last Friday.

“The focus for next week is the US Fed policy. It is not going to be an easy Fed policy as Covid cases are rising in the US, and may lead to a dovish communication by the Fed,” said Rahul Gupta, Head Of Research- Currency, Emkay Global Financial Services.

“However, the Fed may hint at tapering its asset purchase program if it believes that the economy doesn’t need life support.”

Consequently, Fx traders will keep an eye on the US Fed’s decision.

“Until then we expect the USDINR spot to continue trading within the 74-75.25 range. Any hawkish commentary or hints at tapering the asset purchase program will surge the USDINR spot above 75 zones,” Gupta said.

According to Devarsh Vakil, Deputy Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities, “Rupee likely to consolidate next week amid continued inflows into primary markets countered by outflows in secondary market.”

“On global front, FOMC may follow the footsteps of ECB, by keeping rate unchanged and offer dovish commentary.”

Technically, experts opined that spot USDINR is expected to trade in the range of 74 to 75 with negative bias for coming week.

(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at rohit.v@ians.in)