Sima Shine, the head of the Iran programme at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, Israel, feels that even if there is a regime change in Iran after the June 18 presidential elections, the international policy of the country will not change.
Speaking at a webinar organised by the Centre for Policy and Development Studies on ‘Iran: Security Implications of Recent Political and Internal Developments’, Shine said the Islamic clergy under Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei is controlling Iran and unless there is a change in this count, Iran will continue to be a threat to peace in the Middle East.
She said while the present policy of Iran is to wipe out Israel from the world map, 42 years back, Israel and Iran were in excellent terms, enjoying a peaceful coexistence.
Shine also said that the people of Iran cannot be kept under oppression for long and with social media and internet giving glimpses of a changing world and the freedom enjoyed by its people, a literate society cannot be kept under confinement for long.
The Iran expert also claimed that the missiles fired by the Hamas on Israel that took the life of a Kerala nurse — Soumya — on May 10 were supplied by Iran.
Shine further said that if Iran succeeds in making a nuclear weapon, it will be the end of global peace and there could be a mad race for nuclearisation in the Middle East with Saudi Arabia also getting forced to make one.
Speaking at the webinar, Raz Zimmt, an expert on Iran with the Institute of National Security Studies, said that Israel has said that Iran is facing 40 per cent inflation, more than 40 per cent unemployment, while there are several domestic issues as well.
However, he said that even though there is a general resentment among the people of Iran, the eruption of a revolution is a distant possibility.
He also said that the Iran elections will not be a major game-changer as far as international geopolitics is concerned.
Zimmt said Iran has developed several proxies in countries like Syria, Yemen and Lebanon to fight against Israel, adding that the resources that country is using for these proxies are enough for making their own country prosperous.
The event was moderated by Lt Colonel (retd) Yochai Guiski, who had worked with the Israel Defense Force (IDF) and Israeli Military Intelligence.
C. Rajeev, the Director of Centre for Policy and Development Studies, introduced the gathering.