Massive capex underway in RIL

RIL has spent Rs 1 trillion capex year to date, majority of which is on Jio, followed by retail and E&P, as a result of which the reported net debt is Rs 1.1 trillion as of 3Q, up 18 per cent QoQ, IIFL Securities said in a report.

The capex on 5G rollout, retail, and E&P should remain firm in FY24, it said.

“We cut FY23/24 consolidated EPS by 3-4 per cent to reflect 3-8 per cent Ebitda cut in JIO (deferment in tariff hike), higher depreciation etc; the 15 per cent pa PAT growth builds in backended ramp up in E&P volumes and gradual pick up in revenue/sq ft in retail with unchanged margins. SoTP works out at Rs 2,861/share; the stock will react positively to news flow on tariff hikes in telecom, demerger of Jio Financial Services, and green energy business,” the report said.

Emkay Global Financial Services said, in a note on O2C, it saw plant turnaround in October ’22. Domestic petchem demand was steady. Petchem deltas would improve from China’s revival, while diesel-kero cracks should remain firm from lower inventories, Russian cap, and more than 1 mbpd refining capacity addition in CY23 vs 1.9 mbpd estimated oil demand growth globally. MJ1 gas output would start in Q4FY23.

Retail’s revenue momentum would continue with operating leverage expected to drive margins, while Jio is expanding its 5G coverage (pan-India by Dec-23) with fiber also scaling up. RIL’s capex is led by Jio and retail. While net debt has increased, it is still less than the annual Ebitda runrate.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services said in a note that Reliance Industries (RIL)’s 3QFY23 consolidated revenue was in line with its estimate, up 17 per cent YoY/down 6 per cent QoQ. Ebitda grew 19 per cent YoY/13 per cent QoQ (18 per cent beat) driven by a big beat in standalone result. Adjusted for an extraordinary gain in 3QFY22, PAT declined 3 per cent YoY as the improvement in operating margin was offset by higher depreciation and finance cost.

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