Issuing the first phase forecast for the southwest monsoon 2002, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday said the country, as a whole, will receive normal rainfall, however, there would be below normal rainfall over many parts of northeast India.
“Normal to above normal seasonal rainfall most likely over many areas of northern peninsula and central India, along foothills of the Himalayas and some parts of northwest India, below normal rainfall is likely over many parts of northeast India, some parts of northwest India and southern parts of the South Peninsula,” IMD Director General, Meteorology, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told media persons.
For NE states, the bad news was not restricted to the current SW monsoon forecast. Based on the new normal that IMD introduced from this year, there is no change in the spatial distribution of the rainfal, neither in annual, nor in monsoon, post-monsoon season.
“However, comparing the meteorological subdivision wise data for 1961-2010 to 1971-2020, it shows that the northeastern states, especially Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura are getting less rainfall during 1971-2020 compared to 1961-2010,” he said.
In other words, the normal annual rainfall based on 1971-2020 is higher than that based on 1961-2010 over west-central India, while it is less over Uttar Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura.
In 2021 too, below normal rainfall was observed over northeast India (apart from extreme northwest India).
Meanwhile, west-central India, especially, Saurashtra-Kutch, Rajasthan, and west Madhya Pradesh are getting higher rainfall during 1971-2020 as compared to 1961-2010.