NYMEX crude oil seen at $66-96 per bbl in Jan-Mar, says Kotak Securities

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Crude oil is expected to trade in a range of $66-96 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, which is considered as the global benchmark, brokerage Kotak Securities said in its quarterly outlook.

Investors are advised to wait for a “corrective dip” before creating fresh long positions, it said.

For crude oil on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India, prices are seen in a window of Rs 4,700-7,200.

“While volatility may continue, general bias still remains positive with expectations of a tighter market,” the brokerage said.

Demand for crude oil is expected to grow, said the brokerage, adding that, however, challenges still persist in the form of risks from the virus, slower global economic growth and withdrawal of stimulus measures.

On the supply side, crude price is expected to rise as higher prices incentivise production. That said, geopolitical risks and lack of any major breakthrough in Iran talks has caused some uncertainty.

“What will impact prices will be the pace at which the market switches from deficit to surplus (production). The longer it takes for supply to match demand growth, prices may remain supported,” it added.

Global crude market slipped into a deficit in 2020 as supply growth was slower than demand recovery.

The demand growth is now expected to stabilise while supply is expected to pick up pace and may result in a surplus in 2022.

“Despite expectations of a surplus, crude prices are near multi-year high. This shows that market players are more optimistic about demand growth than supply,” it added.

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