The Ontario government today released updated COVID-19 modelling, which shows the province is experiencing a second surge in cases similar to what other jurisdictions including Victoria, Australia and Michigan in the United States have experienced. Forecasting suggests that Ontario could be around 1,000 cases per day in the first half of October.
Key highlights from the modelling update:
- Cases are currently doubling approximately every 10 to 12 days.
- Ontario could be around 1,000 cases per day in the first half of October.
- The growth in cases was initially in the 20 to 39 age group but now cases are climbing in all age groups.
- Intensive Care Unit (ICU) occupancy is currently steady, but it is predicted that admissions will likely rise with an increase in COVID-19 patients being hospitalized.
- Ontario may see between 200 and 300 patients with COVID-19 in ICU beds per day if cases continue to grow.
The Chief Medical Officer of Health wants Ontarians to be vigilant in adhering to public health measures to reduce the number of new cases and the spread of the virus. “With the recent rise in cases, we limited private social gatherings and tightened public health measures for businesses and organizations to reduce the transmission in our communities,” said Dr. David Williams. “We wanted to release this modelling to be open about the challenges our province faces, and the important work we all need to do to flatten the curve.”
“COVID-19 continues to be a serious threat in our communities, and today’s modelling shows the importance of adhering to public health measures,” Christine Elliott, Deputy Premier and Minister of Health reiterated. “Over the summer we saw how our collective efforts helped slow the transmission of COVID-19, we must not let our guard down now as we head into the cold and flu season. We all need to do our part and continue to follow all public health measures in place to contain and stop the spread of the virus.”
The Chief Medical Officer of Health and other public health experts will continue to closely monitor the evolving situation to advise if and when public health restrictions need further adjustment, or if a community-specific or region-specific approach should be taken.