The latest data to be released from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds the Conservative Party of Canada leading the governing Liberal Party by 14 points nationally.
The CPC lead in all regions of the country outside of Quebec, where three-in-10 residents would support the Bloc Québécois (30%) or the Liberal Party (29%) and 23 per cent would vote for Pierre Poilievre’s party.
The Liberals have one remaining bastion of support at this point, women over the age of 54. Within this group, two-in-five (41%) would support Justin Trudeau’s party, while 28 per cent prefer the opposition CPC. Young women show an overwhelming preference for the NDP, while all other age and gender combinations lean toward the CPC at this point.
Two-in-five would-be voters say the carbon tax will be a major factor for them in deciding which party to support in the next federal election, with some voters presumably hoping to keep the tax in place to curb emissions, and others hoping to elect a Conservative government to “axe the tax”.
An early 2022 tie between the Liberals and the opposition dips further into the rearview, as the Conservative lead continues to grow. The Conservative Party holds a lead in every region of the country outside of Quebec, where the Liberals and Bloc Québécois share top position.
Men older than 54 now prefer the CPC by a two-to-one margin over the Liberals, while women of the same group offer the Liberals a 13-point advantage. Young women overwhelmingly support Jagmeet Singh and the NDP, which jump the Liberal Party for second place among young men as well.
While 86 per cent of 2021 Conservatives say they will support the party again in a future election, the other major contenders see their past voters disembarking. Three-in-five 2021 Liberals and 64 per cent of New Democrats would support the party again.
Past Liberal voters continue to dissipate from the party ranks, with 18 per cent now saying they would vote for the NDP and one-in-eight preferring Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives:
The issue of the month is undoubtedly the carbon tax. Asked how much this issue will influence their vote in the next federal election, two-in-five Canadians say it will be a major factor. This proportion jumps to three-in-five among past Conservative voters.
