India’s 30-scrip S&P BSE Sensex gained a whopping 2.4 times or 135 per cent from the lows of 2020 lockdown to its latest peak of more than 60,300 points, and the rise seems to have just started, cited experts.
The 30-scrip sensitive index touched an intra-day low of 25,638.9 points on March 24, 2020, the first day of the Covid-induced lockdown. On Friday, it reached an intra-day high of 60,333 points.
On a closing basis, it gained 125 per cent from 26,674 points on March 24, 2020 to 60,048.47 points on Friday.
It took the market just 42 days to accumulate the last 5,000 points.
Even the NSE Nifty50, which nearly missed touching the 18,000-mark on Friday, rose 138 per cent from the lows of March 24, 2020.
The near vertical climb pointed out by analysts can be attributed to the global economic response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
“There was a massive global economic response from the government, central banks and the corporate world against the disruption caused by the pandemic,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head, Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
“Massive stimulus ranging from 10-20 per cent, rock-bottom interest rates, rise in foreign fund inflows, domestic economic reforms all contributed to the rise.”
Besides, Khemka said that 15 per cent growth in listed entities profits in FY21 despite the pandemic showcased resilience that unleashed a wave of new retail investors into the markets.
According to V.K. Vijayakumar, Cheif Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services: “The returns from investment are truly spectacular with Sensex returning above 130 per cent from the lows of March 2020. The broader market has done better.
“India is presently the best performing market with Nifty outperforming both MSCI World Index and MSCI EM Index. The economic news is positive with impressive tax collections, booming exports and rising FPI inflows, which have touched Rs 64,655 crore so far in 2021.”
Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities, said: “From the bottom of the Sensex of 25,639 on March 24, 2020, the Sensex has risen 135 per cent due to low interest rates, monetary easing policies followed by central banks, increased pace of vaccination, hopes of revival in economic growth globally, rise in commodity prices, increased spending on IT due to digitisation process gaining momentum, increased spending by governments to tackle slowdown, and disruption in commodities where China was a dominant player due to the China+1 policies followed by major countries.”
All in all, pent-up demand seen during the unlock phase, accelerated vaccination drive, less restrictive second lockdown and lower chances of a third Covid wave along with healthy macro-economic data points are expected to give more legs to the current rally.
“The massive stimulus, reforms, and liquidity support will definitely grow the economy and it seems we are in the first cycle of an economic upturn,” Khemka said.
(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at firstname.lastname@example.org)