Trudeau and O’Toole tied in final week of election campaign

A recent election poll has the Liberals and Conservatives tied for first place once again showing that the race to the finish line will be a nail-biter. 

Leger’s latest survey conducted in association with The Canadian Press asked Canadians which party they intend to vote for (or have already voted for) and which party they think will form the next government.

Among decided voters, 32 per cent pledged their support for the Justin Trudeau-led Liberals while the same number, 32 per cent, backed Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives. Jagmeet Singh’s NDP remained in third place with 20 per cent indicating that he will once again be the king maker.

Not surprisingly, the numbers for the Liberals were slightly better in Ontario where the poll suggested they had 36 per cent support. The Conservatives came in slightly lower with 34 per cent

“Our last two surveys over the past 10 days have shown the Liberals and Conservatives in a tie,” said Leger’s Executive Vice-President Christian Bourque. “However, there is more to the story. Today’s survey reveals that the PPC has gained 2 points and the Maverick Party is now at 5 per cent in Alberta, eating at Conservative support. The Bloc is up 3 points in Quebec after the events of last Thursday’s (English) debate, showing little hope for the Tories in Quebec and threatening the potential for Liberal seat gains. Finally, at 20 per cent, the NDP is trending slightly downwards.

“This survey is further evidence that next Monday night will likely be a nail-biter regardless of stripe.” 

Approximately 75 per cent of decided voters told Leger that the party they have chosen to vote for is their final choice. Around 14 per cent are still likely to change their mind, and 11per cent don’t know.   

However, the proportion of Canadians who think the Liberal Party of Canada will form the next government is trending downward. 

Opinion of Trudeau is said to have worsened 38 per cent after the debate, while that of O’Toole fell 29 per cent and Singh worsened 18 per cent.

Only 40 per cent of those polled said they were satisfied with the Trudeau government, while 55 per cent were dissatisfied, 4 per cent didn’t know and 1 per cent  preferred not to answer the question. 

When asked which federal party leader would make the best prime minister, 25 per cent said Trudeau, and 22 per cent chose Singh. O’Toole remained in third place with 20 per cent.

Leger’s web survey of 2,001 Canadians randomly recruited from LEO’s online panel was done between September 10 and 13. It cannot be assigned a margin of error because internet-based polls are not considered random samples. Results were released on Tuesday.

A Nanos poll also has the 2 front runners “gripped in a tie”.

According to Nanos Research’s nightly tracking data conducted for CTV News and the Globe and Mail, the Liberal Party has 32.3 per cent support of Canadians surveyed, closely followed by the Conservatives at 31.2 per cent.

The latest polling data, which was released Tuesday, also shows the NDP at 18.9 per cent, an increase of 0.3 per cent from the night before.

Nanos also noted a tie between Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole for preferred prime minister. While O’Toole is trending up,  support for Trudeau is down making the race neck-and-neck.

In terms of support for the party leaders, Trudeau continues to maintain his slight lead on the preferred prime minister front with 30.8 per cent support, followed by O’Toole with 29.5 per cent. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh trails at 17.5 per cent in the Nanos poll. 




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