Uttar Pradesh is now facing a 44 per cent rain deficit despite heavy showers in some parts of the state.
The main reason, according to officials, is the absence of a typical monsoon spell in which overcast skies with intermittent rains occur for two-three days at a stretch.
Normally, a couple of such spells happen twice in each of the four monsoon months, but this time scattered rains with shorter duration of spells have been witnessed so far.
However, meteorologists are hopeful of sufficient rain in September, which may not cover the entire deficit, but would narrow the gap between actual and normal rains by the end of the monsoon season which lasts in the state from June mid till October first week.
The IMD data has revealed that over 28 per cent of districts, mainly in the north and northeast India are rainfall deficient during the monsoon season so far.
According to the state monsoon assessment report, the average per district rainfall in UP since June 1 till date has been 332.4 mm against the average normal of 593.1 mm.
Similar is the situation in the state capital, where total rainfall this monsoon so far has been 341.8 mm, which is 34 per cent below the normal of 519.3 mm.
Chitrakoot is the only district with surplus rains (40 per cent above normal), while Farrukhabad has been the driest place in the state with 79 per cent below normal rainfall.
There are about eight districts which have received near normal (range 19 per cent above or below normal) rainfall.
About 49 districts are such where rainfall has been deficient (20-59 per cent below normal) and 18 are reeling under large deficit (60-99 per cent below normal).
“The rainfall in June, July and August has been below the normal values of these respective months. However, we expect that rainfall in September will be as per the normal fixed for this month,” said state Met director J P Gupta.
At present, the monsoon trough – an elongated low pressure area embedded with small cyclonic circulations – is running close to the foothills of the Himalayas. A western disturbance is also approaching India and a cyclonic circulation is over Madhya Pradesh, he said.
Under the influence of these factors, rain/thunderstorms are expected at a few places in East UP, including Lucknow, and at isolated places in the West UP till Friday.
The rainfall activity will decline thereafter, but will pick up pace again next week, he added.