If the predictions and projections hold true, Uttarakhand promises to be literally a neck and neck fight.
This was revealed when final seat projections were announced by the CVoter-ABP News opinion poll released on Monday evening.
It will be an agonising wait for both the Congress and the BJP. When the BJP changed three Chief Ministers in a span of six months in 2021, it looked like a cakewalk for the Congress, with former Chief Minister Harish Rawat still being projected as the most preferred Chief Minister. Going by the poll results, it will not be that easy.
The BJP is reminded of bitter memories of 2012 when its sitting government won just one seat less than the Congress and lost power. Incidentally, the party had made a “last minute” Chief Ministerial change even then.
According to the final results of the poll, the Congress is projected to win between 30 to 36 seats. Incidentally, 36 is the magic majority mark in Uttarakhand.
The BJP is projected to win between 31 to 37 seats. The Aam Aadmi Party which made a determined effort to emerge as a serious contender, trails far behind with a projected range of 2 to 4 seats. It is very difficult to hazard even a guess when such a tight finish is being projected, just as it was in 2012 when the Congress finally pipped the BJP to the post.
If it does, the two main reasons according to analysts will be anti-incumbency against the BJP government along with the popularity of Harish Rawat. If the Congress fails, one big reason could be the AAP cutting into the anti-BJP vote share.