Who will win the next federal election?

A new poll suggests that nearly half (48%) of Canadians think the Liberal Party of Canada will win the next federal election. The Liberals are enjoying a 7-point lead over the Conservatives nationally among decided voters according to an online survey conducted by Leger in partnership with the Association for Canadian Studies (ACS), and published in The Canadian Press. 

In the web survey conducted from July 30, 2021 to August 1, 2,079 Canadians were asked a variety of questions about federal politics. 

Around 36% of decided voters said they would vote Liberal while 29% would cast their votes for the Conservatives. This was despite the respondents being almost evenly split on their views about the Trudeau government’s performance. While 46% were satisfied with the current government, almost half (49%) said they were dissatisfied. Of those happy with Trudeau, only 8% were very satisfied and 38% somewhat satisfied. Amongst those not happy with the current prime minister, 27% were very dissatisfied, while 22% were somewhat dissatisfied. Around 4% said they didn’t know and 1% preferred not to answer the question.

When asked which federal party leader would make the best prime minister of Canada, 27% said Justin Trudeau, 19% said Jagmeet Singh and 11% said Erin O’Toole. Maxime Bernier received only 3% support and Green Party Leader Annamie Paul 1%. However 13% said they wouldn’t choose these leaders, while 19% said they didn’t know who should lead the country.  

A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey. 




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