The Well Marked Low Pressure Area (WM LPA) over Southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea moved northwestwards, concentrated into a depression on Saturday morning and is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm by Sunday evening.
If it intensifies into a cyclonic storm, it will be termed as ‘Asani’.
The WM LPA lay centred at 5:30 pm about 280 km west of Car Nicobar (Nicobar Islands), 300 km south-southwest of Port Blair (Andaman Islands), 1,140 km southeast of Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh) and 1,180 km south-southeast of Puri (Odisha), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
It is very likely to move northwestwards and intensify into a cyclonic storm over eastcentral Bay of Bengal on Sunday.
“It is very likely to continue to move northwestwards till May 10 evening and reach westcentral and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal off north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts. Thereafter, it is very likely to recurve north-northeastwards and move towards northwest Bay of Bengal off Odisha coast,” the IMD bulletin said.
Earlier in March, a deep depression skirting Andaman & Nicobar Islands had not intensified into a cyclonic storm even though IMD had been predicting it four days or more prior to the d-date.
The wind shear, faster winds and sea surface temperatures are some of the factors that affect the movement of such systems.
In the current case, the IMD had earlier predicted that the WM LPA would intensify into a depression by Saturday evening, which happened by morning itself and against Friday’s prediction of this system intensifying into a cyclonic storm by Sunday evening, the IMD’s latest prediction now says Sunday morning.
Light to moderate rainfall is likely at a few places with heavy rainfall at isolated places over coastal Odisha and adjoining areas of north coastal Andhra Pradesh from May 10 evening, while rainfall at a few places with heavy rainfall at isolated places is likely over coastal Odisha and adjoining coastal areas of north Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal on May 11.
Sea conditions would be choppy and fishermen have been warned not to venture into sea around the coastal areas.