With crude hovering around $95-$130, fuel price hike inevitable

Continued hostilities between Russia and Ukraine as well as rising demand is expected to keep global crude oil prices in the range of $95-$125 per barrel in the short to medium term.

On last Friday, the Brent-indexed crude oil price stood at over $112 per barrel. Just a few days ago, Brent rose to a 14-year high and crossed the $130 per barrel-mark. It neared the $140 per barrel level.

Lately, crude oil prices have surged by more than 20 per cent on fears of tight supplies. Currently, Russia is one of the largest producers of crude oil in the world.

It is feared that new and more stringent sanctions against Russia will curtail global supplies and stifle growth.

For India, the crude oil price range is a cause of concern as it may add Rs 15-Rs 25 in petrol and diesel selling prices. Till now, fuel prices have been steady since early November 2021, when the Centre reduced excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 5 and Rs 10 per litre, respectively.

“Brent is expected to trade between a broad range of $85 to $125 levels. Geopolitical tension still exists and supply shortage will keep crude oil prices elevated,” said IIFL Securities VP, Research, Anuj Gupta.

“If international prices sustain on higher levels then domestic petrol and diesel prices may increase by Rs 15 to Rs 25 in a staggered manner.”

According to Kshitij Purohit, Lead of Commodities and Currencies CapitalVia Global Research: “Crude oil price is retracing from its highest peak of this year. The government has not yet increased the prices of domestic petrol or diesel due to elections in multiple states. In our view, the government will increase the price of petrol to Rs 120 per litre gradually by next month.”

In addition, Tapan Patel, Senior Analyst (Commodities), HDFC Securities said: “We expect Brent oil prices to trade in the range of $95-130 per barrel in the medium term. We can expect a fuel price hike of at least Rs 10 per litre, if oil prices sustain above $100 per barrel for a quarter of a period.”

(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at rohit.v@ians.in)




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