With new highs round the corner, expect markets to remain choppy, volatile

Markets gained on four of the five trading sessions last week with Wednesday being the sole day of correction. They continued to be volatile and saw benchmark indices making an attempt to make new lifetime highs but failing. BSESENSEX gained 1,293.28 points or 2.20 per cent to close at 60,059.06 points while NIFTY gained 363.15 points or 2.07 per cent to close at 17,895.20 points. The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 2.05 per cent, 2.19 per cent and 2.35 per cent, respectively. BSEMIDCAP gained 2.43 per cent and BSESMALLCAP performed even better gaining 3.95 per cent.

What is clearly visible is that markets are currently finding support at levels of 58,500 followed by 58,200 and finally at 57,865 on the BSESESENSEX, and there is an area of resistance between 60,000 and 60,450 with the lifetime high being 60,412.32 points. Similarly on NIFTY, the areas of support are at 17,550, 17,330 and finally at 17,250 levels. The area of resistance is around the previous top at 17,950 points. Even last week the market came within a whisker of the lifetime high, hitting an intraday level of 17,941.85 points against the lifetime high of 17,947.65 points. Each time markets approach these zones there is support and a tremendous bounce back. Similarly, after approaching the highs, there are global cues, profit taking and markets fall.

Effectively we gained last week what we lost in the previous week and its just a change of sentiment between the last week and the previous one. To give a better picture, the closing levels for the last four weeks are as follows: – October 8 60,059, October 1 58,765, September 24 60,048, September 19 59,015 points. Similar levels on NIFTY were October 8 17,895, October 1 17,532, September 24 17,853 and September 19 17,585 points. This clearly explains that markets are now waiting for a big trigger and would move in either direction, but very swiftly and ferociously. It is for this reason that I write regularly requesting readers to buy into sharp dips and sell on rallies.

The Indian rupee was under pressure and lost 86 paisa or 1.16% to close at Rs 74.98 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained 419.79 points or 1.22 per cent to close at 34,746.25 points.

In economic news, RBI at its bi-monthly monetary policy review meeting, held interest rates unchanged for the 8th consecutive period by a unanimous vote. Markets cheered the news and were also enthused with the GDP growth numbers that RBI forecasted.

Details of AIR INDIA divestment were announced and Tatas have won the bid. Its like homecoming after 68 years when in 1953, the then PM Jawahar Lal Nehru had nationalised and paid Rs 2.8 cr for the same. Now in 2021, it’s a full circle and Air India is back in the stable of Tatas. They would have a multiple of airline companies under their fold which would include Air India, Air India Express, Alliance Air coming from the government and their own Vistara and AirAsia. While operational details of how the conglomerate would function are yet to emerge, this would be a great fillip to the customer or passenger as he would have better choices and two dominant airlines going forward.

On the flip side, the dispute between the two founders of Interglobe Aviation Limited, the owners of Indigo Airlines, seem to be never ending. Post the final order from the London Court of International Arbitration which did not issue any orders against the company, it now appears that the dispute has moved to the Delhi High Court. This legal battle could turn murky in little or no time and could change the dynamics of aviation in the country. Watch the aviation sector in the coming quarters and how Air India’s rebirth pans out. From a market perspective, Jet Airways is waiting to take to the skies again and Go Air, rechristened as Go First, is waiting to tap the capital markets.

Result season for the quarter July to September have begun. One of the first key results to hit the market were from TCS which posted stellar results. The company reported revenues of Rs 46,867 cr which were higher by 16.77 per cent compared to the Rs 40,135 cr in the 3-month period ended September 2020. EBITDA margin was at 27.97 per cent against 28.47 per cent. Pat margin was at 20.53 per cent versus 18.40 per cent. The EPS for the quarter was at Rs 26.02 versus 19.93 per cent for the comparable quarter. With Infosys and Wipro slated to declare results on October 13, this sector is likely to see increased action in the coming week.

Covid-19 seems to be coming under control as far as India is concerned and the expected or possible third wave seems to be a long distance away if at all it does happen. In readers interest, I am discontinuing giving information on the same hereafter, but would post information on a need basis. In terms of vaccinations in India, a total of 94.64 cr people have been vaccinated. Roughly 5.7 cr vaccines were administered during the week.

Coming to the week ahead, markets would have an early weekend with Friday being a holiday for Dussehra. The mood as on the last day of trading was extremely buoyant and markets appear set to make new highs in the coming days or weeks. As mentioned earlier, we also seem to be developing cold feet when we enter the previous lifetime high zones and markets slip. This turmoil is likely to be witnessed next week as well and it would be very difficult to predict when and at what level the new high would be. The strategy would continue to remain one of buying on sharp dips and selling on strong rallies. Keep some cash as buying opportunities always present themselves.

In conclusion, choppy and volatile times ahead with a four-day week. There would be a tendency of market players to lighten their exposure on Thursday before the extended week begins.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)