Wobbly stock markets to subdue rupee; global cues a concern (IANS Currency Forecast)

Stock market volatility as well as hawkish stand by global central banks are likely to subdue the Indian rupee during the upcoming week.

Besides, lacklustre performance of recently listed IPOs along with inflationary concerns will hamper any prospects of strengthening.

Last week, rupee displayed strength to touch a high of 73.95 per USD before giving up gains and closing at 74.25 to a greenback.

“Wobbly stock markets and hawkish central banks have left little space for the rupee to strengthen further,” said Sajal Gupta, Head, Forex and Rates at Edelweiss Securities.

“Expect rupee to trade between 74.10 to 74.80 in coming week.”

According to Devarsh Vakil, Deputy Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities: “USD/INR pair is likely to trade between 73.7 to 74.30 mark this week.”

“We continue to favour a view that USD/INR pair is likely to strengthen towards 73.5 mark over the next few months in the medium term.”

Besides, Vakil expects investments in the form of FDI and FPi flows into equity markets will keep the currency stronger in the medium term.

“Early next year, we expect Indian treasuries to be included in the global bond indices, and that will attract more flows rushing into the country.”

In addition, Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said that next week, on the domestic front, market participants will keep an eye on the Q2 GDP number.

“An uptick in growth number could keep the rupee supported at lower levels… We expect the dollar would continue to strengthen against its major crosses and that could weigh on the rupee as well.

“We expect the USD/INR (Spot) to trade sideways with a positive bias and quote in the range of 74.05 and 74.70.”

(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at rohit.v@ians.in)