Friday, July 12, 2024

US Fed most likely to hold rates

The US Fed is more likely to hold rates at this meeting, but the message from the Fed chief Powell will be hawkish since the economy is surprisingly resilient with a 4.9 per cent growth in Q3 GDP, says V.K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

The high bond yields in the US also indicate that the market expects the higher for longer rate regime to continue for some time. Since no surprise is expected from the Fed meeting outcome, the market is unlikely to be impacted. But the high bond yields will weigh on markets and FIIs can be expected to continue selling, he said.

The consequent weakness in sectors like financials where the FIIs hold a major segment of their holding will provide buying opportunities for long-term investors, he added.

Jaykrishna Gandhi, Head – Business Development, Institutional Equities, Emkay Global Financial Services said geopolitical concerns, largely unexciting earnings and awaiting FOMC tonight in US keep the markets in a fairly volatile state.

The US markets have seen some gains in the past few days going into the FOMC while China continues to be topsy-turvy as industrial production once again suffered which drove markets down. Lack of a material stimulus by the Chinese government continues to weigh on the markets there, he said.

Indian markets tested the lows of 18,800 but bounced back and now seem to have averted making new recent lows in the current expiry. Tonight’s FOMC will be a key trigger for markets for the rest of the week as that will put to rest the discussion of further rate hikes and also potentially give some insight into inflation as well the path for rate cuts, he added.



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